Nov. 4--TOKYO -- The focus of attention in international negotiations to draft an anti-global warming framework to succeed the Kyoto Protocol is shifting to whether some kind of political compromise will be possible, since reaching an actual conclusion at the 15th Conference of Parties of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP15) seems increasingly difficult.

COP 15 will be held in Copenhagen in December to discuss drafting a successor to the Kyoto Protocol from 2013.

The Japanese government has announced an ambitious goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2020. The precondition of the goal is that all major emitter countries join the scheme, but will this proposal lead to progress in the negotiations.

In late October, Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the secretariat of the U.N. convention, said it would be impossible to put together the new protocol by the end of the year, partly because negotiations had been deadlocked for nearly two years.

At a special subcommittee meeting held Oct. 9 in Bangkok, delegates from developing countries harshly criticized their counterparts from industrialized nations. One of them said that industrialized countries were trying to abandon and kill the Kyoto Protocol.

The negotiations have become a conflict between the two groups.

The developing countries want the next framework to be an extended version of the Kyoto Protocol, which obliges only industrialized countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions between 2008 and 2012. Opposing them are a group of industrialized nations demanding a brand new framework in which all countries participate in anti-global warming efforts.

The developing countries insist global warming was caused by industrialized countries and have strongly resisted having to make any promises to accept obligations.

In light of this situation, it looks increasingly likely that a political compromise at the COP 15 meeting is the best that can be hoped for.

Prime Minister Andres Fogh Ramussen of Denmark, which chairs the COP 15 meeting, called on the world's leaders to attend the meeting, saying that if they did so it would be possible to reach a political agreement.

His plans include such options as:

--A new protocol will be made and major emitter countries will make some promise to cut emissions.

--The accord will keep the possibility of the Kyoto Protocol being extended, with developing countries and the United States, which has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, also making some efforts to cut emissions.

--The COP 15 meeting will not mention key points of disputes, such as the form of the next framework, industrialized nations' numerical goal for emissions cuts, and developing countries' promises to cut emissions.

For example, if the first option is agreed upon, it will be possible that the new protocol can be adapted six to 12 months later.

The industrialized nations, including Japan, Australia, the United States and the European Union, proposed a new framework that obliges both industrialized and developing countries to cut emissions.

But the contents of the obligations are different between the two sides. While industrialized nations will have to cut total emission quantities, developing countries will be obliged only to set energy-saving goals or take some actions to reduce emissions.

But the developing countries are still opposed. One of the Japanese delegates said: "Under the Kyoto Protocol, industrialized nations and developing countries are clearly divided like regular teams and farm teams. The countries desperately want to keep this two-stage structure.

"If all countries participate in the new framework, it will be easier to change a country's status from a farm team to a regular team. The developing countries fear that they may be obliged to cut total emission quantities some time in the future," the delegate said.

A businessperson close to the negotiations said, "The developing countries are resolutely opposed to a single new protocol, and the direction of the negotiations is heading toward extension of the Kyoto Protocol."

The United States has insisted that it is important that industrialized nations and developing countries enter the same framework, but at the same time it said it will not commit to an extension of the Kyoto Protocol.

A Japanese government source said that if the United States and China, which are not obliged to cut emissions by the Kyoto Protocol, agree, there may be two frameworks.

The source assumed that another framework may be created that the United States and developing countries would join after the Kyoto Protocol is extended.

The source also feared that "there is a possibility that the EU, fearing a breakup of the talks, will accept the developing countries' position and finally agree to extension of the Kyoto Protocol."

As a precondition to achieve the goal of 25 percent emissions cut, Japan has demanded "a fair and effective framework in which all major emitter countries will participate."

At the same time, the Japanese government presented the "Hatoyama Initiative," which includes financial aid to developing countries.

Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa said at a press conference in October, "The possibility is not zero," when he was asked whether the government may withdraw the 25 percent cut proposal depending on other countries' reactions.

Concerning the use of the "25 percent card" as a diplomatic tool to make other countries set an ambitious goal, it is likely that the Japanese government will face harsh criticism.

Agenda still being set

A meeting of the special talks panel, which will be the last working-level negotiation for the COP 15 meeting, started Monday in Barcelona, Spain.

Though the panel repeatedly narrowed down documents in the past for a blueprint of the COP 15 meeting, the panel's document is still 172 pages long.

The main agenda items expected to be discussed are:

--Setting a long-term goal for 2050 shared by the whole world.

--Prevention of damages caused by global warming.

--Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

--Technological assistance to developing countries.

--Financial aid to developing countries.

--Fostering human resources in developing countries.

Of them, no consensus has been formed about the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, even over the time period of the next framework from 2013, after the 2008-2012 period of the Kyoto Protocol expires.

However, consensus has been obtained over a basic concept that developing countries must register their actions to reduce emissions in some form with international organizations, and that industrialized countries check the progress of their actions and offer assistance.

Heated debates are predicted from here on out between industrialized and developing countries over some points, including what will be registered and what level of binding power the scheme will have.

On the subject of preventing damage related to global warming, it is considered that island nations and African countries, which often suffer from floods or drought, will make plans to prevent such damages, and industrialized countries will reinforce financial and technological assistance for the purpose.

Regarding financial aid to developing countries, Mexico, Norway, South Korea and other nations have made various proposals.

A source close to the negotiations said, "The last piece of the puzzle for completing a political agreement may be how much money industrialized countries will provide."

EU seeks home-field advantage

The EU intends to grab the initiative of the COP 15 meeting chaired by Denmark to produce agreement that might in some way be favorable for the EU by making use of an international emissions quota trading market or in some other way.

The Danish prime minister expressed a sense of being pressed in his speech in late October saying that at the current pace, it would be impossible to reach any ambitious agreement by the COP 15 meeting.

This was because of the difficulty of making the United States, which did not sign the Kyoto Protocol, and developing countries--including China and India, which are major emitters of greenhouse effect gases--join the new emissions cutting framework. There also is discord within the EU over what action to take.

At an EU summit meeting in late October, the main item on the agenda was how much will be provided to assist developing countries' anti-global warming efforts.

But after the meeting, environment-protection organizations harshly criticized the outcome of the meeting, saying that the leaders missed an opportunity to break the deadlocked negotiations for the COP meeting.

Though the EU member nations agreed on the need for all industrialized countries to offer sizable aid, they failed to agree on practical amounts that the EU will shoulder.

A negotiator from an industrialized country said that the EU has failed to adjust opinions among member nations and is falling into a pattern of waiting to see what moves are taken by Japan, the United States and other industrialized countries.

Kono is a senior writer, Ouchi is a London correspondent and Kosaka is a staff writer of the City News Department.

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